• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Tuesday, August 24, 2010 Over the past several weeks several users have inquired about the best way to estimate costs associated with porting existing software to a new hardware environment. Normally for this situation some of the existing software will require some amount of adaptation to operate on a new server. However, a large portion of the existing software will only require integration into the new environment.   Estimating software costs associated with the above will require the use of several cost objects: - Systems cost object if program management, Quality Assurance, configuration, and    documentation costs are to be included in ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, January 8, 2013 The preliminary results are in for our electronics complexity study!   For those that are unfamiliar with TruePlanning® lingo, Manufacturing Complexity for Electronics is our scale for measuring the differences in technology, producibility (component make-up, packaging density, test and reliability requirements, etc.) and yield of the electronics being estimated.  As the complexity number gets bigger, it means the electronics are more complex, and more costly (per unit weight) to develop and manufacture.   At first glance, the general trend from lowest complexity to highest complexity seems about right.  The lower complexity items are found on ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 One of the biggest challenges estimators face is defending their estimates.  You may trust in your estimate, but how do you get others on board who might be unfamiliar with parametric estimating?  Showing comparisons of your project to similar completed projects is one of the best methods of defending your choice of inputs and your final results.  It’s also a method that nearly everyone understands.  Unfortunately, relevant, high quality data to compare with isn’t always available. There are 2 important trends related to this problem.  First, high quality data is being protected more so than ...
Original Post Date: Monday, October 8, 2012 The answer:  ~ 10.226.  At least that’s the value on our complexity scale we found via calibration after modeling it in TruePlanning(R).   Check out this Teardown of the new iPhone 5 , which breaks it down into a bill of materials, each with an estimated cost.  A colleague had the cool idea to model the iPhone 5 with TruePlanning, using information we could find on the internet.  This was a really thought-provoking exercise to help me as I’m updating our electronics complexity guidance, because the electronics in the iPhone 5 are state-of-the-art. Around ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, October 2, 2012 We’re building a tool that quickly and easily allows you to map costs in your TruePlanning(R) projects to any custom Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), including templates for the MIL-STD-881C.  By mapping TruePlanning costs to fit your point of view, you can make use of your organization’s existing research, and ensure that your cost estimates are complete, realistic, and can be easily compared to other projects apples-to-apples.  This is great for AoAs and analyzing where and why costs differ between various solutions (not to mention 881C mapping is a required deliverable for major ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, August 23, 2012 We’ve bought access to IHS Haystack, which links us to huge amounts of data on government parts and logistics, including electronics running the gamut of technologies, functions, and types of equipment.  The tool combines data from more than 70 military and commercial databases, and includes detailed data on costs, procurement histories, and a wide range of technical characteristics – perfect for building and validating CERs. This data will be very useful for our TP 2013 Electronics Update.  All of this data can be built into a knowledge base and made available to TruePlanning users.  With this ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, July 3, 2012  Introduction Cost estimate models are developed for many reasons: bids and proposals, should cost analysis, or measuring the state of a project already underway. Frequently many estimates are created using the same sources of data in an organization. By creating a custom integration solution based on the TruePlanning COM API repeated model creation can be automated. This can save considerable time, significantly increase the quality of the estimates by removing hand typed data errors, and speed up the time it takes to produce and gain value from cost estimate models. By example, this blog ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, July 3, 2012  Introduction A cost estimation model needs to be fed data, and it is only as good as data used to create it. Frequently the data needed to ‘feed’ the cost model comes from a variety of sources including engineers, subject matter experts or other individuals not directly building the cost model. Just asking these experts to stick their finger in the air and take a guess isn’t always the best approach. Using the COM enabled Data Input Form Excel solution that comes with TruePlanning can help users obtain the data needed to complete ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, July 3, 2012 Introduction @RISK and Crystal Ball are two Excel based applications that allow users to perform uncertainty, sensitivity or risk analysis on data contained in Excel spreadsheets. The analysis can be performed using various techniques including Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube.  Many TruePlanning users are interested in performing this type of analysis on the models they create in TruePlanning or may even have requirements to perform this type of analysis on their estimates.   In response to this desire, PRICE Systems L.L.C. has created two Excel based solutions that allow users to easily leverage the ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, June 19, 2012 In my last blog, I talked about the major research study on electronics being undertaken by the PRICE cost research team this year.  So far, we have visited modern electronics facilities, interviewed electronics experts, and visited customer sites to discuss their electronics estimating challenges. Among other things, we want to revisit and improve our “Manufacturing Complexity for Electronics” calculator.  This calculator guides users through a process of describing the electronic components being modeled, in a way that helps them quantify the complexity.  The first steps involve describing the equipment type, and technologies used.  ...