• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Monday, December 12, 2011 Check out this paper “The Economics of Community Open Source Software Projects: An Empirical Analysis of Maintenance Effort.”  In it the authors hypothesize that Open Source practices increase the quality of the software that gets produced and subsequently lead to code that is less costly to maintain.  Low quality code must be refactored more frequently than high quality code and there is substantial evidence that maintenance interventions tend to lead to even more degradation of the quality of the code.  So not only are low quality applications more expensive to maintain, the unit ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, October 20, 2011  Check out this article.   “Why IT Projects May be Riskier than you Think”.  If you read through the comments you will see that this article truly resonates with many in the field.  In the article the authors discuss research of over 1471 IT projects (large projects with an average cost of $167 million) comparing budgets and expected performance with actual costs and results.  Their results were surprising in that the average overrun was only 27%.  Turns out that the average isn’t what requires study but rather the outliers.  The study found that ...
Original Post Date: Friday, September 2, 2011  The IEEE published “Top 11 Technologies of the Decade” in the  January 2011 editions of the IEEE Spectrum magazine.  It should come to a surprise to no one that the Smartphone was number 1 on this list.  The answer to the author’s question “Is your phone smarter than a fifth grader” was a resounding YES![1]   In 1983 Motorola introduced the first hand hell cellular phone.  It weighed in at two and a half pounds, had memory capacity for 30 phone numbers, took 10 hours to recharge and had a selling price of $4000 ...
Original Post Date: Monday, August 1, 2011 After many years of working with systems engineers and design engineers it became apparent to me that the cost of the system they were designing / building mostly seemed to be an after thought. Maybe not by the Lead Systems Engineer or Program Manager but certainly down in the trenches. The engineers working at the subsystem, component, and element levels always expressed frustration with having too much to think about to add one more variable, such as cost estimation, to their work load. I posit that this can no longer be the case. In ...
Original Post Date: Monday, July 11, 2011 There is a ton of code out there and we’re constantly adding more.  Gartner reported in 2009 that there were more than 310 billion lines of code in use worldwide. MS Word has grown from 27,000 lines of code in the first version to about 2 million in 2010.  The Windows Operating System grew from 3 million lines of code in 1992 to 20 Million in 1998.  You get the point – there’s lots of code out there doing lots of the same things that we may want our software to do. One ...
Original Post Date: Friday, June 17, 2011  Building transparency and traceability into your estimating process leads to more defendable estimates and we can help you do that. We will demonstrate how historical data is transformed into predictive models.   You will learn how your data can be synthesized into custom models that can be employed in support of third party models within a single analytical framework. Learn more at our webinar on June 29th @ 11am Eastern.  Reserve your no-charge; no obligation webinar seat now at: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/372682434
Original Post Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 At the 2011 ISPA Conference, I conducted a ½ day workshop How To Develop Data-Driven Cost Estimating Relationships  in TruePlanning. The attendees at the workshop learned how to import their own data into TruePlanning and develop custom Cost Estimating Relationships. We covered three case studies:   ·         In the UCAS case study we demonstrated how we can build CERs at a higher level to provide a test of reasonableness to the CAPE. ·         In the SRDR case study we demonstrated how we develop a CER to estimate SLOC based on historical data and use the results ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 While teaching an introductory TruePlanning for Software Estimating course this week at an Army location, I was asked to follow up with a clarification on “percent adapted” calculation.  The official PRICE training materials definitions are:   • Percent of Design Adapted - the percentage of the existing (adapted code) design that must change to enable the adapted code to function and meet the software project requirements;   • Percent of Code Adapted - the percentage of the adapted code that must change to enable the adapted code to function and meet the software project requirements.   The former, Design, ...
Original Post Date: Friday, June 10, 2011 I’m on my way home from the ISPA/SCEA (International Society of Parametric Analysts, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis) Conference held in Albuquerque this week.  Attendance was very good (2nd best in the conferences history) and as the content seemed especially good this week.  I attended lots of good talks on topics ranging from SEPM (System Engineering, Project Management) cost estimating, Joint Confidence Levels, Software Estimating, Affordability,  Agile software development and estimating for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems.   Of course, just because the topics are good and well presented doesn’t mean I have ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, May 25, 2011  Going to ISPA SCEA in New Mexico?  If so, join us for a workshop on data driven cost estimating.  Description:  Building transparency and traceability into your estimating process leads to more defendable estimates.  This hands-on workshop demonstrates how historical data is transformed into predictive models.   You will learn how your organization’s data can be synthesized into custom models that can be employed in support of third party models within a single analytical framework.  Participants will learn:  (1)   To develop system level estimating relationships to provide a test of reasonableness and historical cross-check to proposed estimates. (2) To develop ...