• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 1, 2008  As I prepare my remarks for the first PRICE Systems International Symposium and User Group Meeting in Asia hosted by the PRIGENT corporation, I am astounded by the recent globalization of the Defense Industry.  Worldwide weapon systems acquisition has been permanently changed by:  the merger of US defense contractors in the 1990's, the entry of European contractors into the US Defense Industry (EADS, BAE) in the 2000's, and the entry of Korea into the global market happening now. Today, BAE Systems ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008 While many at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG are staggering from the Wall Street financial crisis, others on the acquisition side are contemplating the fate of redundant operations created by the these consolidations.  This reminds me of the rapid consolidation of the global Aerospace and Defense (A&D) during the 90's after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Granted, this consolidation is happening at a much faster pace, but it would be wise for decision-makers to do a little performance measurement before they slash and burn redundant operations.  During the A&D consolidation, the General Electric Corporation called ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 Martin Woodward ‘s comparison of software development to Sudoku does an excellent job of explaining why software cost estimation is hard.  We constantly hear about software development projects that are unsuccessful because they have violated one or more aspects of the Project Management Triangle  - they are either delivered late, delivered over budget or fail to deliver the capability that users require. And while I firmly believe that software development is an engineering discipline, software project estimation is often more complicated than estimation for other engineering disciplines because software project output is not nearly ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 A good point is made in a comment to my last post, Chris Carter says, "As estimators I think it is our duty to tell our customer (management) what we assess the possible range of outcomes to be so that they can make use of this information ".  I agree that we should always deliver an indication of accuracy every estimate.  Uncertainty and risk analysis is an integral feature of TruePlanning and we educate our clients on the value of estimate ranges to optimizing project and portfolio performance. The uncertainty-based probabilistic confidence-level of an estimate that ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Recently a client approached me with a thought provoking inquiry.  They were interested in performing historical trend analysis on their software projects to support estimating software costs for future technologies.  They have done this for years with hardware procurements and wanted to start performing the same kind of analysis for software. For hardware it’s not that hard to do, we have tangibles like RAM size, processor speed, resolution, etc. The question they had for me was “What are likely candidates on which to perform historical trend analysis for software”.  Think about it.  What ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, August 12, 2008 I frequently attend trade shows and conferences focused on software development and/or cost estimating.  These shows provide a great opportunity for me to perform informal, unscientific surveys of the state of the software estimating discipline.  When queried on software estimating practices, more than half of those surveyed indicate a method that significantly resembles some attraction at a local carnival.  To the follow up question of “How’s that working for you?” the reply is almost always as expected – “Not too well”. As an industry we have failed pretty miserably at institutionalizing software estimating ...