• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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You mentioned using production qty vs. prototype, even with the Space Mission Objects, however typically Spacecrafts are very low qty and my experience from heavy PRICE H use is that the production qty uses a much steeper slope. Is it now more realistic with the industry data in the space objects that production qty is good to use now? Yes, that is our recommendation.  We have seen production first units higher in cost than prototypes.  We recommend using the latter for engineering models and test units. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Do you have capability to do CONOPS which drive the design? Good idea!  As demonstrated, we allow the user to model complexity (or any other input) as a function of requirements, specifications, etc which could include a CONOPS value as well.  Also, another companion application is our linkage to the design-trade tools ModelCenter and i-Sight. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Are you able to triangulate bounds on inputs, low -high-average, to get nominal values? Yes, the risk tools above all allow for triangular distributions.  Specifically in FRISK, the “Auto” selection (from the Method drop-down in the Risk Input Sheet) will generate pessimistic and optimistic values around the point estimate’s baseline.  Or the inputs can be manually input. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Do the cost models include SEER, USCM, OGC, NAFCOM, ACEIT? Per our discussion, ACEIT is an export option from TruePlanning.  And we are evaluating the feasibility of hosting PCEC (fka NAFCOM) as a custom catalog, available to NASA users. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Spares may be a contract deliverable? Yes.  Quantities include flight units, spares and prototypes for Ems/proof-of-concept builds. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can cost estimates be “simulated” using Monte Carlo (or alike) to model probabilistically based costing? Monte Carlo simulation is via Crystal Ball and @Risk. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
How is cost uncertainty integrated into cost basis and subsequent roll-up into subsystems, etc? Complexities are density functions that act as surrogates for combinations of CERs.  Hence, overall model prediction error is reflected by the impact of complexity uncertainty on overall risk at subsystem and system levels. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can you provide additional information regarding the missions used for the basis of the Space Mission Catalog? Table 1 - Scope of Historical Data Table 2 - Planetary Missions in the Database Table 3 - Astrophysics Missions in the Database Table 4 - Earth Science Missions in Database To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can you provide a pointer to additional information regarding the ChiCoMo Model? Here’s an earlier webinar by our Chief Scientist: http://www.pricesystems.com/Resources/Videos/tabid/487/VideoId/23/language/en-US/Default.aspx To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Whether a new cost estimator or a seasoned professional cost estimator, we all need to continuously seek to improve the credibility of our cost estimates.  I can think of no better reference to assess our cost estimates than the March 2009 Government Accountability Office (GAO) Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide.  The basic characteristics of effective estimating from the guide are listed below, were first published in 1972, and have stood the test of time as the yard stick for measuring the credibility of our cost estimates done for both government and industry. 1.       Clear identification of task ...