• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2011  TruePlanning 2010 SR1 estimation software is now available as an upgrade for existing PRICE customers. The most significant update to this version of TruePlanning is the capability to use both parametric estimating models as well as analogous data to produce estimates. This capability validates and increases the defensibility of estimates. TruePlanning provides a framework that allows content driven parametric models to be estimated in one system. Most notably, hardware, software, IT and Systems of Systems (SoS). No other commercially available estimating tool can make that claim. However, whereas in previous versions estimates relied on ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, January 11, 2011 Last week I gave a webinar which detailed the PRICE perspective on Should Cost & Will Cost Management. The responses I have received have been very positive and also informing. For those of you who could not attend you can view the recorded version of that webinar here. Below is a brief summation of that presentation and some key takeaways. The Under Secretary of Defense issued a memo late last year. The thrust of the memo was the current need for greater efficiency and productivity in defense spending. His guidance contained 23 principal actions for improving the ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, January 5, 2011  What percent of our solar systems' total mass does the sun represent?  Leave your estimate in the comments!
Original Post Date: Wednesday, December 8, 2010 With the New Year approaching we thought we would try something different on the blog. Every week will ask a question with a quantitative answer. Your job is simply to give the best estimate you can (you're on the honor system, no googling allowed). You can be above or below, winner is whoever is closest. Each week we will post the previous week's answer and the winner along with a new question. Good luck! Q: Of the top 1000 most popular U.S. baby boy names in 2007, what position did Elvis rank?  Leave your answer and your name in ...
Original Post Date: Friday, December 3, 2010 Yesterday I had the pleasure of speaking at the New England SCEA Chapter December. The attendees were a great mix of experienced, seasoned cost estimators and young, new talent, eager to learn techniques to apply on the job.  My topic was the program management value of combining estimating Rules of Thumb with more rigorous cost estimating models and databases [link to presentation .pdf].  Rule of Thumb estimating is used every day by program managers to help guide their projects.  Oversight authorities rarely have the resources to perform detailed program estimates, so they ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 Unfortunately this is a true story. I decided to have a couple of gold fish in a nice glass bowl, having done my sums I estimated the cost should be: Bowl £20.00 Gravel £5.00 Two gold fish £8.00 Food £4.00 Making a total of £37.00, ok I can afford this, off I go to the pet shop. The pet shop advised “fish don’t like bowls”, plus “it’s cruel to keep them in one”, but as a child I often won fish at the ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, November 17, 2010 Recently a cost research project on missiles was completed. The research resulted in performance based equations for air-to-ground and surface-to-air missiles were developed. The performance based equations can be used for early concept estimation  on missile development and production costs. The question though is “What is the process for developing this type of estimating relationship?” This will be the first of a series of BLOGs on this topic.  The first task is to define what is a “Performance Based Equation?” Bruce Fad covered this definition in a previous “Data Driven BLOG” so please review his post for the details. The second step ...
Original Post Date: Monday, November 15, 2010 Last week I attended the 25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling.  I attended for several reasons.  First of all, I was invited to participate on a panel whose topic was “25 years of Software Estimation: Lessons Learned, Challenges and Opportunities”.  Secondly, I have attended in the past and while it’s generally a small group, as such conferences go, I always come away impressed by the fact that so many smart people end up in one room and this year was no different.   But I digress; I really wanted to share ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, November 2, 2010  After some recent meetings with clients I am sensing some confusion on how to estimate software reuse. I think part of the problem is in the definition of reuse, so let's start with a definition and then address the estimating issue. Software reuse is defined as “the use of existing software, or software knowledge, to build new software.” This definition came from Wikipedia. From a estimating software costs perspective the above definition is part of the problem. The definition should read: "Use of existing software with no changes for operation in the new software program.”  If the existing software is going to be changed, ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 27, 2010 Here’s a cool project.  The Bloodhound Project  is focused on building a land vehicle capable of breaking the 1000mph speed barrier.  The mission of the project is twofold.  The first is to “overcome the impossible using science, technology, engineering and mathematics”.  But the second is more interesting – this project is intended as motivation for the upcoming generation to embrace technology related fields.  Britain doesn’t have enough students interested in such fields and they are worried about their ability to compete in technological forays going forward. But how much should something like this ...