• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Wednesday, November 10, 2010 I was recently struck by Ash Carter’s (Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics) Memorandum for Acquisition Professionals, Better Buying Power: Guidance for Obtaining Greater Efficiency and Productivity in Defense Spending (14 September 2010). Within this broad sweeping memo, Ash Carter outlines 23 principal actions in five major areas aimed at increasing efficiency in Defense acquisition.  The first major area covered is “Target Affordability and Control Cost Growth”. Within this major area, program managers must treat affordability as a requirement before milestone authority is granted to proceed (starting with Milestone A). This ...
Original Post Date: Friday, December 17, 2010 In last month’s blog I wrote about Ash Carter’s (Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics) Memorandum for Acquisition Professionals, Better Buying Power: Guidance for Obtaining Greater Efficiency and Productivity in Defense Spending (14 September 2010). I concluded the TruePlanning unified framework and comprehensive cost models, is a tool very well suited to provide the types of analysis outlined in the memorandum. In terms of Should Cost and Independent Cost Estimates (ICE), TruePlanning estimation software provides the industry standard capability to conduct Should Cost and calibration (actual program history) for ICE. Most ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2010 Parametric modeling is excellent for all aspects of early-concept cost estimation, including go/no-go decisions downstream. So, in the spirit of bringing a transparency to (ethical) financial engineering… why not apply our craft to pricing “real-options”? The latter are essentially strategic opportunities for engaging resources (cost/schedule) into projects, ventures, investments, or even abandonments. The opportunity choice has value itself!  Unlike static project Net Present Value (often, but not exclusively, approximated with Discounted Cash Flow) assuming pre-defined decisions, real-options reflect the merit of flexibility. If an R&D or proof-of-concept presents viability/ marketability learning, the option has positive value, above ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, October 7, 2010 Ahhhh, the 80s… a challenging (but often confusing) time in an evolving computing world.  Working in 1985 as a software estimator as well as SQA engineer in a quality assurance department that “audited” real-time projects using new concepts like OOD & OOP… well, you get the picture.  It was a great time to get immersed into great work.  And the good news:  that company’s process as well as its developers were bullish on a young estimation/ quality types asking plenty of questions… as long as they were of the Yes-No variety.  And ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, August 24, 2010 Over the past several weeks several users have inquired about the best way to estimate costs associated with porting existing software to a new hardware environment. Normally for this situation some of the existing software will require some amount of adaptation to operate on a new server. However, a large portion of the existing software will only require integration into the new environment.   Estimating software costs associated with the above will require the use of several cost objects: - Systems cost object if program management, Quality Assurance, configuration, and    documentation costs are to be included in ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, April 20, 2010 In September of 2009 the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) submitted a report[1] discussing the lack of robust Analysis of Alternatives for weapons systems. The report indicated that … “Cost, schedule, and performance problems in the Department of Defense’s (DOD) weapon system programs are serious. Why is it that DoD weapons programs experience a simultaneous cost growth and performance degradation? I believe the answer is found in unrealistic cost estimates and schedule estimates mostly driven by pressure to win a program within a certain budget constraint. Excessive requirements change either through poor ...
Original Post Date: Monday, June 7, 2010 Currently we are exploring the best approach to including a more comprehensive cost estimate for Total Ownership Costs (TOC) into TruePlanning. The current version of the software has focused on development and production costs with some life cycle costing including. The life cycle costs included are focused on the system specific O&S costs such as initial spares for priming the supply pipeline, maintenance, replenishment spares, etc. It is a system view as opposed to a program view of TOC. As we better understand the need to conduct affordability studies it has become clear that design decisions ...
Original Post Date: Monday, September 20, 2010 I have been fortunate in my career to have been associated with some great mentors. Each individual has provided me a bit of a golden nugget to carry with me as I tried to navigate my way through the professional waters. My first “civilian” manager, after I left the service and joined industry, provided me a list of the Laws of Analysis (I had just started a position as an operations research analyst). He explained that this list was a mix of serious and tongue in cheek snippets of wisdom. I looked at ...
Original Post Date: Monday, November 8, 2010  Margaret Wolfe Hungerford in 1878 in her book Molly Bawn coined the phrase …”Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. This concept of the “value of beauty” has been expressed by others such as:    Benjamin Frankin in Poor Richards Almanack 1741 when he wrote;                 “Beauty, like supreme dominion                 Is but supported by opinion” David Hume in Moral and Political 1742 “Beauty in things exists merely in the mind which contemplates them.”   So what does this have to do with Cost Benefit? Well Merriam-Webster dictionary defines benefit as something that provides useful aid. Inherent in the term “useful” is ...
Introduction: The goal of this blog is to show how data can flow between TruePlanning and ProPricer. This walkthrough is based on estimating a software application that will provide users the ability to track objects orbiting the Earth using a feed from some fictitious data stream. The benefit is the ability to get the labor requirement (effort in hours) estimated by TruePlanning into ProPricer in a seamless, easily repeatable process.   1. Create ProPricer Proposal for the Orbiting Body Tracking application The first step is to create a proposal in ProPricer with a WBS. Each task in ProPricer will have a set of ...