• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: April 27, 2015 An Excel-based Pivot Table consolidates and summarizes data, with the flexibility of changing the order of organization – typically for sorting/aggregating subtotals by multiple designated dimensions.  For example, the below shows two different orderings.  The Left output sorts by Activity, then Object then Resource; the Right output sorts by Resource, then Activity then Object— But what about aligning the objects displayed in the same order as originally in the TruePlanning PBS?  In this blog, we will learn how to control and re-arrange output ordering.  As we learned in the first Pivot Table blog, begin by ...
In our last Part I blog, we introduced the capability of estimating key-input drivers based on early-stage metrics that represent requirements.  We even produced a CER based on a data-driven multiple regression, i.e., a linear model predicting Functional Complexity based only on two Key Performance Parameters (KPPs).  So how could you do the same?  Import the spreadsheet (given last time) into TrueFindings.  Note that spreadsheet row names now become the knowledgebase “column” fields.  Now per below, the first tab-function “Distribution Finder” shows descriptive statistics for all or selected criteria— The second tab-function “Dependency Finder” allow us to observe possible simple ...
Predicting cost from requirements is a fundamental goal of parametric estimating.  Many say they do it.  But often, analogies are not based on rigor and do not represent organizational experience/productivity not capture the complexity of project deliveries driven by requirements. TruePlanning allows for calibration of the latter.  TrueFindings allows for aggregation, filtering and analysis of these calibrations.  But then what?  How can this knowledge base of calibrated metrics best be utilized? The answer is aligning knowledge of corresponding requirements that drove the costs that informed the calibrations.  In this way, we predict an appropriate set of model input-drivers based on the organization and ...
The Business Executive Executives typically challenge their managers of Finance, Engineering and Project Management with reducing risk, reducing cost, and increasing efficiency.  With TruePlanning, the latter can effectively and quickly estimate, evaluate, and direct – whether with initial bids, design trades, alternative analyses, or engineering changes.  With a life cycle approach to Program Affordability Management, these managers can readily accelerate value to the customer, integrate processes, and improve the effectiveness of project selection, control, and delivery. Improve overall cost control and program management, by integrating cost estimating tools into life cycle cost management processes. ...
Business Executives are impacted directly by the organizational use of True Planning in establishing budgets, winning projects and managing programs.  The ultimate value-adds are improving bid success ratio, bidding more competitively, and improving project win rates with insights for more competitive bidding.  The Executive will see overall improvement in organizational ability to win new business as well as renewal/expansion of customer funding.  Use of True Planning and PRICE tools/services translates into developing winning proposals with the right balance of capability versus price, compliant with prospective customer requirements as well as compatible with organizational costs. Improve bid/no-bid ...
The Business Executive attains greater opportunities for more profitable engagements, empowered by effectively leveraging agile, data-driven, credible estimating solutions.  The implementation of TruePlanning immediately affords a more strategic view of life cycle cost estimation to improve the organization’s efficiency— from better planning and better priority setting, through cost estimation of the entire program life cycle.  With improved cost estimating accuracy and insight according to actual experience, the Executive improves customer trust, improve confidence in innovation, and ultimately improve both top-line as well as bottom-line growth. Make well-informed decisions, about programs and projects across the total lifecycle, ...
Original Post Date: Friday, January 9, 2015 Do you generate cost growth S curves? S-curves and Percentile tables are generated by the Risk tools which can reflect mass growth and growth as modeled in other input uncertainties. Per our discussion, note that NASA typically requires mass growth to reflect Optimistic = CBE, Most Likely = CBE + Contingency and Pessimistic = Most Likely +30%. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
How can I convert space-related PES files to TruePlanning? If you all are still using PRICE-H and not yet using TruePlanning, there are now tools available to fast-forward your file conversions. You have two options:  convert your models to the True-Hardware catalog or to the new Space Catalog. In the latter case, you can also choose to estimate System Level resources per below-- Different NASA Centers and contractors are opting for either approach, depending on their existing methodologies.  If you want to leverage our data-driven CERs for the above categories, then use the Space Catalog. If you do your own “post processing” then either ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, June 23, 2010 Parametric modeling is excellent for all aspects of early-concept cost estimation, including go/no-go decisions downstream. So, in the spirit of bringing a transparency to (ethical) financial engineering… why not apply our craft to pricing “real-options”? The latter are essentially strategic opportunities for engaging resources (cost/schedule) into projects, ventures, investments, or even abandonments. The opportunity choice has value itself!  Unlike static project Net Present Value (often, but not exclusively, approximated with Discounted Cash Flow) assuming pre-defined decisions, real-options reflect the merit of flexibility. If an R&D or proof-of-concept presents viability/ marketability learning, the option has positive value, above ...
Original Post Date: Friday, June 25, 2010  Like titanium and other exotic metal-materials, “composites” (by definition, combinations of materials) offer significant weight-savings and reduced part counts, but at a price of high production cost. Sound contrarian to our parametric cost estimating view?   Not really. Complexity of manufacture is quite higher. Likewise process index and structural tooling values grow. Plus, design lead times drive developmental cycles. That said, understand that composites represent more than a material type. They can involve a highly labor-intensive approach to preparing, braiding/ winding, molding, bonding and modular assemblage. Yes, some aspects of braiding and molding lend themselves to automation—which then drives tooling ...