• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



Blog



Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 Competition seems like a sensible practice on the path to best value.  However, is it possible to create a truly competitive environment? “It is a tradition that we don’t trust our business partners, people don’t have a clear understanding of how sharing information would result in better performance.  The lack of understanding induces fear and skepticism.” Hau Lee, Graduate School of Business at Stanford University There are two behaviors that debunk competition in regards to complex systems wrought with uncertainty: over-optimism and deception.  Government buyers share the dual burden of seeking advanced technologies to meet future ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 “I think we have an obligation to work with industry to ensure that our suppliers do not just remain world class in defence, but aspire to be world-class manufactures that can withstand comparison to other industries.” Chief of Defence Procurement, Sir Robert Walmsley Is this a practical proposition or is it a pipe dream?  The following excerpt from Dale Shermon’s Systems Cost Engineering attempts to make the case that this type of comparison is possible. Many of the statements in proposals and marketing literature stating the superiority of a company are anecdotal or at best qualitative ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 MCR and PRICE Systems are proud to sponsor the upcoming Estimating & Analysis Best Practice Workshop at the Marriott Manhattan Beach on April 27th from 7:30 am to 2:30 pm. This FREE workshop features government and industry speakers discussing how the current fiscal environment impacts the day-to-day estimating challenges faced by government program offices and their commercial counterparts.  These events seek to bring leaders together to share ideas and experiences about their most pressing issues. We are looking to professionals, such as you to contribute ideas and best practices.  For more information or to ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2011  How many windows are there in the U.S. Pentagon?  Submit your estimate in the comments section!
Original Post Date: Monday, March 28, 2011  So how did your basketball picks go this season?  My bracket is officially closed since absolutely no one picked any of the final four teams!   I am happy to report that I came in second with a whopping 36 correct picks - picks that most would judge to be pretty bad.  So where did we go wrong? Since I don’t really follow college basketball closely during the year I make my picks somewhat randomly – loosely based on the teams' standing but occasionally predicting an upset.  Naturally, the upsets I predicted were not ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 22, 2011 On average, how many times does a jogger's heel strike the ground per mile?  Submit your estimate in the comments section!
Original Post Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 Happy St. Patricks Day!  The average American eats 4.4 lbs (2.0 kg) of baked beans annually;  what is it for Ireland?
Original Post Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 True Planning results have many options, including viewing Costs by Activity. While simple, this view can be quite powerful, especially when exported for re-organization manipulation.  In a recent exercise, the WBS mapping of common objects, estimated by separate multiple scenarios, presented a non-trivial chore in Excel. “Transposition” features work fine for matrices, as do pivot tables. But how does one map object by activity grids into activity lists, similar to MIL-STD 881a, with singular “roll up” instances of all nonzero object costs?  The secret is in how True Planning appends each activity output with the [object] tag. Once exported ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 ...wear the worst shoes. The cobbler was a master at his craft; he was just too tired to practice it when he got home from the shop.  Sound familiar? A disciplined approach to understanding (functional) requirements as well as analogous projects (with actuals) is our not-so-secret sauce. Why run the risk of creeping back up our career learning curve? There’s already enough scope creep to keep us busy. Plus, for you management types charged with prospecting, a consistent approach towards estimation is a great way to connect with people who've felt the pain of being the cobbler's kids. I recently reconnected ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 In Parametrics is Free, I acknowledged receiving (too late) “you should’ve known to ask that” over the years. Quality control after-the-fact is fine; but it’s better and cheaper to take a systematic approach to quality assurance as part of your estimating process. The sheer volume of what we model can often keep us so close to the details that we are unable to step back and put on our QA hat on for a sanity check. Enter Quality! On a very large project, our team has introduced a few regular cross-checks, notwithstanding typical math check-sums.   A round table peer ...