• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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For all you legacy PRICE-H users, your requests were heard loud & clear regarding estimation of multiple production lots, to include the option of specifying gaps between lot runs. The new Multi-Lot solution is controlled at the system-level via a Production Learning Gap Loss Factor  input.  It’s set at the top-folder object, under the Detailed Estimate input #62.  This input serves as a linear multiplier to adjust or eliminate the setback (gap) between lots of a multiple lot production run. This control hence allows you to account for more or less "loss of learning" during the gap.  Setback can be ...
Original Post Date: October 8, 2015 Over the last couple of months PRICE has received a number of support calls related to an inability to import or export *.tpprj files from TruePlanning. When an import or export is attempted users are receiving an error indicating a “bad parameter or missing node”. The cause of this error has been a case of a missing XML library known as the MSXML4 library. MSXML4 had been installed as part of Windows operating systems by default for years, but newer versions of XML libraries have been created and are now used exclusively so new installations ...
Original Post Date: October 8, 2015 The TruePlanning’s plug-in to Model Center has had an update to fix some issues that were found with the plug-in. - Removed extra elements that had been appearing the Model Center’s Model tree. Users were finding that as they worked with the TruePlanning plug-in, elements from the selected TruePlanning project were appearing in the Model tree with zero values. - The error displayed when the plug-in is used with a TruePlanning database with no projects saved was updated to clearly indicate that there were no projects in the database. - Links created between the TruePlanning plug-in elements ...
Original Post Date: September 30, 2015 One of our larger commercial customers asked for the ability to estimate the “learned out” Nth unit.   As always, we are here to hear you and your immediate needs.  Still in beta-test, the following is our pending new solution.  But we’d like to hear from you too here. On the "Metrics" tab, there will be an output called "Cost of Nth Unit".  This new value represents the theoretical cost of the Nth production unit, based on learning curve calculations— unless you override with your own curve values.  You will see this learned-out unit cost at ...
Original Post Date: July 2, 2015 One topic we’re focusing on for the next version of TruePlanning is supporting a variety of methods for estimating an activity.  For example, we currently have sophisticated algorithms supporting our estimation of spare units/modules/parts, which depend on characteristics of the item, as well as the operating and support (O&S) scenario described.  However, there are often good reasons for wanting to use a different method to estimate these costs, and we’d like to give users the ability to pick from a variety of methods. Many users want to be able to estimate initial spares costs before ...
Original Post Date: July 1, 2015   Introduction The latest version of PRICE’s “Large Project Engine” allows users to update the values in calculators through Excel. While calculators are designed to be easy to use and user friendly, there are times when it is convenient to update the data in a calculator in Excel. The following blog will provide details on how to do this. This blog assumes users have installed the “LPE”. The LPE’s installation files are available on the TruePlanning installation media. The LPE is an Excel plug-in which means it will create a menu in Excel which is always ...
Original Post Date: July 1, 2015 Introduction                Consumers of cost estimates need to understand how risk  and uncertainty impacts their estimates and, as such, performing Monte Carlo analysis is becoming a required step in producing a cost estimate at many organizations. One of the most popular Monte Carlo tools is Oracle’s Crystal Ball and PRICE has produced an Excel based solution that allows users to perform Monte Carlo analysis on their TruePlanning estimates. With this combined solution users can run risk/uncertainty analysis on their parametric estimates using an industry standard tool. The Issue In the TruePlanning/Crystal Ball solution, users select TruePlanning ...
In our last Part I blog, we introduced the capability of estimating key-input drivers based on early-stage metrics that represent requirements.  We even produced a CER based on a data-driven multiple regression, i.e., a linear model predicting Functional Complexity based only on two Key Performance Parameters (KPPs).  So how could you do the same?  Import the spreadsheet (given last time) into TrueFindings.  Note that spreadsheet row names now become the knowledgebase “column” fields.  Now per below, the first tab-function “Distribution Finder” shows descriptive statistics for all or selected criteria— The second tab-function “Dependency Finder” allow us to observe possible simple ...
Predicting cost from requirements is a fundamental goal of parametric estimating.  Many say they do it.  But often, analogies are not based on rigor and do not represent organizational experience/productivity not capture the complexity of project deliveries driven by requirements. TruePlanning allows for calibration of the latter.  TrueFindings allows for aggregation, filtering and analysis of these calibrations.  But then what?  How can this knowledge base of calibrated metrics best be utilized? The answer is aligning knowledge of corresponding requirements that drove the costs that informed the calibrations.  In this way, we predict an appropriate set of model input-drivers based on the organization and ...
Introduction As part of PRICE’s commitment to meeting its customers’ needs, PRICE will occasionally release beta versions of its software in order to provide an urgently needed fix or enhancement for a customer or enlist the help of customers in performing final testing. TrueMapper receives frequent enhancements and customers frequently use beta versions. This blog will describe how to download, and install beta versions of TrueMapper as well as manage having multiple versions of TrueMapper on a single computer. Downloading Beta versions of TrueMapper will be made available through links on our Amazon server. Links will look something like: https://s3.amazonaws.com/CompanionApps/2014SR2/TrueMapper_14.2.5582.16609.zip To use ...