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Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 It is impossible to find a news website or magazine that is not full of articles on the effects of Sequestration.  As a cost estimator, I find the topic very interesting (and troublesome).  The immediate effects of Sequestration are widely discussed.  However, I do not see quite as much news coverage on the second and third order effects of this extremely complex policy decision. The Department of Defense (DoD) has a specific target that must be removed from the budget over the next 10 years.  Some analysts claim a doomsday scenario.  Others claim it ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 In a recent National Public Radio (NPR) interview, Winslow Wheeler (Director of the Straus Military Reform Project of the Project on Government Oversight in Washington, D.C.), spoke on the recent problems with the Joint Strike Fighter acquisition process.  “Wheeler explained that Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the jet, uses a pricing vocabulary that masks costs. ‘Flyaway costs, non-recurring and recurring costs, and lots of gobbledygook, and they’ll say that comes to a number like $60-$70 million dollars. And, it’s complete baloney,’ said Wheeler.” (pogo.org)    The F-35 has the distinction of being the most ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 What follows is PRICE's interpretation of how to model FPGA’s and ASICs inside our current version of TruePlanning® 2012 SR2 and older versions. ASICs are an application-specific integrated circuit, customized for a particular use. FPGAs are Field-programmable gate arrays and are considered the modern-day technology that can be used in many different applications because of the programmable logical blocks. In industry ASICs has grown from 5,000 gates to over 100 million. Designers of digital ASICs use a VHDL language for the functionality.   Estimating Best Practice for TruePlanning: Model your electronics at the board level ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 Last November I hosted a webinar that discussed the use of the companion applications Live! This session helped to further explain how to use them in congruence with TP, the history, & why we created them, etc. During the presentation I showcased the success’s I have encountered with using them both in the recent AOA I described in part 2 and this blog part 3. You can find the recorded webinar on our site. In addition I described as I am going to do here the differences between the large project engine and the excel ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, September 24, 201 Risk Analysis Methodology Overview – Method of Moments In this second of three articles on risk analysis, we will discuss Method of Moments.  Method of Moments (MoM) is an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation.  Along with the methodology, we will present some pros and cons of using MoM over Monte Carlo.  What is a moment? Before we discuss the methodology behind MoM, we first need to talk about moments.  Caution:  for all the master statisticians out there, this article is meant to boil down complex topics in an easy to understand manner.  There are obviously ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 While TruePlanning by PRICE Systems is the world leading parametric cost estimation tool, the reality is that not all members in an organization are going to have TruePlanning installed on their desktops, but that doesn’t mean those people can’t get a view into the power of TruePlanning. The TruePlanning Viewer is a tool under development that allows users to view the PBS and data contained in a TruePlanning project without having TruePlanning on their desktops. Figure 1 TruePlanning Viewer TruePlanning users will be able to create special “tpview” files that non-TruePlanning users can use with ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 A frequent question from students and consulting clients is how to estimate software size when either: detailed functional requirements descriptions are not yet documented or, even if the latter do exist, the resources necessary (in cost and time) for detailed function point (“FP”) counting are prohibitive. If appropriate analogies or detailed use cases are not available, fast function point counting can be a non-starter, without nominal understanding of pre-design software transactions and data functions.  Hence, the challenge is to find an estimating basis for functional measure (i.e., ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, October 11, 2012  Over the past year and half of customer mentoring, I have been responding to more and more requests regarding how to represent the DoD Acquisition Phases in the development of TruePlanning® cost estimates. With the renewed interest in Total Ownership Costs, there appears to be a desire to have greater visibility into costs by appropriation over a well-defined / understood schedule. This need to estimate and report out on cost by appropriation and schedule has been a driver behind the need to represent the acquisition phases more explicitly within TruePlanning® than is ...
Original Post date: Wednesday, October 10, 2012 Deciding whether Excel® is a friend or foe is a hefty topic, so I decided to dedicate several blog posts to the issue!  This first posts addresses all of PRICE’s new boundless Companion Applications.  The second will address my experience using the applications with our customers (Do’s and Don’ts); and lastly, the third and final blog will wrap it up and explain a more in-depth large project engine that PRICE is currently testing.  As we all know Microsoft Excel® is a powerhouse tool.  It allows you to house data, format it in many ...
Original Post Date: Monday, October 8, 2012 The answer:  ~ 10.226.  At least that’s the value on our complexity scale we found via calibration after modeling it in TruePlanning(R).   Check out this Teardown of the new iPhone 5 , which breaks it down into a bill of materials, each with an estimated cost.  A colleague had the cool idea to model the iPhone 5 with TruePlanning, using information we could find on the internet.  This was a really thought-provoking exercise to help me as I’m updating our electronics complexity guidance, because the electronics in the iPhone 5 are state-of-the-art. Around ...