• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Are you able to triangulate bounds on inputs, low -high-average, to get nominal values? Yes, the risk tools above all allow for triangular distributions.  Specifically in FRISK, the “Auto” selection (from the Method drop-down in the Risk Input Sheet) will generate pessimistic and optimistic values around the point estimate’s baseline.  Or the inputs can be manually input. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Do the cost models include SEER, USCM, OGC, NAFCOM, ACEIT? Per our discussion, ACEIT is an export option from TruePlanning.  And we are evaluating the feasibility of hosting PCEC (fka NAFCOM) as a custom catalog, available to NASA users. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Spares may be a contract deliverable? Yes.  Quantities include flight units, spares and prototypes for Ems/proof-of-concept builds. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can cost estimates be “simulated” using Monte Carlo (or alike) to model probabilistically based costing? Monte Carlo simulation is via Crystal Ball and @Risk. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
How is cost uncertainty integrated into cost basis and subsequent roll-up into subsystems, etc? Complexities are density functions that act as surrogates for combinations of CERs.  Hence, overall model prediction error is reflected by the impact of complexity uncertainty on overall risk at subsystem and system levels. To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can you provide additional information regarding the missions used for the basis of the Space Mission Catalog? Table 1 - Scope of Historical Data Table 2 - Planetary Missions in the Database Table 3 - Astrophysics Missions in the Database Table 4 - Earth Science Missions in Database To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Can you provide a pointer to additional information regarding the ChiCoMo Model? Here’s an earlier webinar by our Chief Scientist: http://www.pricesystems.com/Resources/Videos/tabid/487/VideoId/23/language/en-US/Default.aspx To watch the "Best Practices using the TruePlanning Space Missions" Webinar, click here.
Original Post Date: Friday, October 4, 2013 In my "Work Breakdown Structures are Workable!" blog, we reviewed the subtleties of using the [object] tag to your advantage in creating different sorts and roll up subtotals. As a followup, I’d like to drill down a bit on the initial step of using the “copy grid” exports. Each row number is unique, thus creating an identifying key for the vlookup function in Excel. Since all object X activity instances are allocated 100% to one of the three phases (with very rare exception), these row keys allow you to sort and re-group ...
Original Post Date: Friday, October 4, 2013 True Planning results have many options, including viewing Costs by Activity. While simple, this view can be quite powerful, especially when exported for re-organization manipulation. In a recent exercise, the WBS mapping of common objects, estimated by separate multiple scenarios, presented a non-trivial chore in Excel. “Transposition” features work fine for matrices, as do pivot tables. But how does one map object by activity grids into activity lists, similar to MIL-STD 881a, with singular “roll up” instances of all nonzero object costs? The secret is in how True Planning appends each activity output with the ...
Original Post Date: Friday, October 4, 2013 The late Norm Crosby’s “Quality is Free” taught us that an investment into quality is more than offset by prevention of defects based upon understanding of requirements. Only with the latter can lack of conformance (and subsequent costs) be captured and hence quantified towards quality. So how then is Parametrics relevant? Parametric estimating is more than cost modeling. Our craft represents an initial consulting function into the accuracy and completeness of program planning concepts. Our customers trust us to know when to ask and when to supplement. Yes, we are mathematical and financial modelers ...