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Original Post Date: Monday, November 30, 2009 It seems that business and government today is mired in cost-benefit analysis. The cost side is fairly easy to understand: how much money will the business (or government) have to expend to deliver a given service? Benefits are a little harder to quantify. First, there is the difference between monetary versus non-monetary or social benefits. Some things like the office Christmas Party do not make any money but they keep morale high. Second, there is the difference between short-term and long-term costs and benefits. The company using Blackberries may bring the immediate satisfaction ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, April 2, 2009 I have to say that my foray into blogging has been an interesting one.  By definition, the Chief Scientist should be a nerdy sort of geek too high brow to pontificate on topics in such a pedestrian format.  Actually I kind of like it.  In part because I enjoy writing and I'm not picky about what I write - technical documents are OK but pontification works as well.  And in part because I know that in order to be a good writer in a particular genre one must read extensively from that ...
Original Post Date: Monday, March 23, 2009 Here’s a great article I happened upon while doing research for a paper I’m writing.  “Lessons Learned: IT’s Biggest Project Failures”  In this article we are treated to stories of IT projects that “first make people laugh and then” (hopefully) “make them think.”  As a long time student of the failed software project, I was neither surprise nor disappointed with the projects relayed.  The projects noted failed for reasons such as: Failure to perform a should-cost analysis before selecting a supplier Failure to recognize an unhealthy project before it ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 Doing business with the Department of Defense (DOD) requires that you have disciplined company governance in specific areas as noted in the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations (DFARs). In particular, DFARs 215.811 and 252.215-7003. DFARs 215.811 requires all DOD contractors, large and small, have adequate estimating systems to support their proposals. As part of a regulatory oversight requirement, the Defense Contracts Audit Agency (DCAA) will periodically perform contractor estimating system reviews. If you are a large defense contractor, you can expect your estimating system to be reviewed routinely. Smaller defense contractors can be audited ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 Author Nassim Taleb describes a Black Swan as an unexpected event that ultimately leads to what best can be described as a paradigm-shift. In his book, The Black Swan, he includes 9/11, the rise of the Internet, Google and the personal computer as Black Swan events. We could not have predicted those events but they have had a huge impact on us. Even positive Black Swans can be a source of frustration. Since so few people are prepared for them, it becomes impossible to profit from them. The group that is most frustrated by ...
Original Post Date: Monday, February 2, 2009 In a seminal RAND Corporation report, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing, author and former CIA agent K.W. Komer promotes the idea that the mindset of America’s institutions led to problems in Vietnam. His thesis is that the bureaucracies of the U.S. were fixated on fighting the Vietnam War according to how the bureaucracies had prepared and organized instead of in manner that the situation required. As I read the stimulus package before Congress, I see a focus on the idea that new technology will create jobs. Yet I also have read that Governor Schwarzenegger ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, January 20, 2009 Today, change is in the air.  As I write this, Barack Obama is about to be sworn in as our new U.S. President and the space community, among others, should be braced for change.  A recent LA times article reported that of the 74 questions asked of NASA by the Obama transition team, over half were on basic spending issues, including cost overruns. The Obama team and the NASA Administrator Michael Griffin clearly do not see eye-to-eye.  Monday, it was announced that Mr. Griffin will step down from the post.  Griffin characterizes himself as an ...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008 by Anthony DeMarco Technology readiness is a critical cost driver of development programs.  Many high technology programs fail because initial cost and schedule expectations were based on the assumption that the technologies employed were proven,  when actually they were not. Space programs have the most dubious history in this regard.  I once listened to a Lockheed Martin executive explain how the X33 space shuttle was a great vehicle, but was canceled because it was, "two inventions short of meeting the requirements". Canceled after over one billion dollars were spent. Starting development projects that have constrained budgets and ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 A good point is made in a comment to my last post, Chris Carter says, "As estimators I think it is our duty to tell our customer (management) what we assess the possible range of outcomes to be so that they can make use of this information ".  I agree that we should always deliver an indication of accuracy every estimate.  Uncertainty and risk analysis is an integral feature of TruePlanning and we educate our clients on the value of estimate ranges to optimizing project and portfolio performance. The uncertainty-based probabilistic confidence-level of an estimate that ...