• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 Every day we use tools like TruePlanning to build up detailed parametric cost estimates.  We could spend weeks collecting data and design information, and weeks honing details on risks and uncertainties.  When we finally get to reasonable point estimate, or even a distribution of probable estimates, there are always more questions.  Of course the range of queries depends on the purpose of the estimate, and who your consumer is.  If you are preparing an estimate for a competitive proposal, a company executive may be your consumer.  They may want to know, “What is the ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 After we spend time building up a point estimate, a cost estimator always has to do some additional work to break the estimate down into terms their estimate consumer will understand, or to perform different comparisons for various analyses.  Sometimes, you need to map the estimate into a Standard Work Breakdown Structure or Cost Element Structure.  Sometimes you want to compare to a bottom-up or grass-roots estimate.  Or, if you are planning budgets or manpower out into the future, you need details.  We have to speak a lot of languages in order to ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 We have been blogging a lot lately about finding the right manufacturing complexities for your hardware  projects using TrueFindings, and the many ways you can determine the most appropriate Manufacturing complexities: taking averages from related projects, finding a correlation to another descriptive parameter (like horsepower for engines), or even looking into multi-variate regression to determine the best value.  If you are a TruePlanning user, you know that Manufacturing Complexities (for structure or electronics) are the most common parameter to use in calibration, and that the manufacturing complexity drives both Production and development ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 25, 2013 We all pull data and research from various sources when creating a project estimate.  You may pull together public CERS, internal research, subscription based data or commercial models.  In the end you want your entire estimate in one format.  If you use TruePlanning, you may have used the “Other Direct Cost Object” in the past to include costs estimated in another model.  You may have utilized the “Equation Cost Object” to include a CER with up to 5 variables, which would allow you to account for the size and complexity of an ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, September 24, 201 Risk Analysis Methodology Overview – Method of Moments In this second of three articles on risk analysis, we will discuss Method of Moments.  Method of Moments (MoM) is an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation.  Along with the methodology, we will present some pros and cons of using MoM over Monte Carlo.  What is a moment? Before we discuss the methodology behind MoM, we first need to talk about moments.  Caution:  for all the master statisticians out there, this article is meant to boil down complex topics in an easy to understand manner.  There are obviously ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, February 21, 2013 I recently attended a webinar presented by David Herron of the David Consulting Group (DCG) discussing a recently released specification for the automation of function point counting (available on the Consortium for IT Software Quality (CISQ) site .  Function point counting is a process through which software ‘size’ is measured by the amount of business value that the software delivers to the end user.  Function Point counts are thought by many to be a far superior means of measuring software ‘size’ because they are technology neutral and not impacted by factors such as ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 While TruePlanning by PRICE Systems is the world leading parametric cost estimation tool, the reality is that not all members in an organization are going to have TruePlanning installed on their desktops, but that doesn’t mean those people can’t get a view into the power of TruePlanning. The TruePlanning Viewer is a tool under development that allows users to view the PBS and data contained in a TruePlanning project without having TruePlanning on their desktops. Figure 1 TruePlanning Viewer TruePlanning users will be able to create special “tpview” files that non-TruePlanning users can use with ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, January 8, 2013 The preliminary results are in for our electronics complexity study!   For those that are unfamiliar with TruePlanning® lingo, Manufacturing Complexity for Electronics is our scale for measuring the differences in technology, producibility (component make-up, packaging density, test and reliability requirements, etc.) and yield of the electronics being estimated.  As the complexity number gets bigger, it means the electronics are more complex, and more costly (per unit weight) to develop and manufacture.   At first glance, the general trend from lowest complexity to highest complexity seems about right.  The lower complexity items are found on ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 One of the biggest challenges estimators face is defending their estimates.  You may trust in your estimate, but how do you get others on board who might be unfamiliar with parametric estimating?  Showing comparisons of your project to similar completed projects is one of the best methods of defending your choice of inputs and your final results.  It’s also a method that nearly everyone understands.  Unfortunately, relevant, high quality data to compare with isn’t always available. There are 2 important trends related to this problem.  First, high quality data is being protected more so than ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, November 29, 2012 With Customize View, TruePlanning™ offers great flexibility in editing favorites as row by column grids.  Typical examples are Object by Activity, Object by Resource and Activity by Resource.  But what if you wanted to view any of these grids also by year?  In other words, how can we add a third dimension?  Last October, in my “Work Breakdown Structures are Workable!” blog, we discussed the use of Excel’s Data-Sort and Data-Group options to build up a WBS, for a MIL-STD 881 style view of Activity by Object as a linear list.  Results were singular ...