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Original Post Date: Tuesday, June 15, 2010 The GAO just published a report saying that strong leadership is key to planning and executing stable weapons programs. And, evidence is presented to back the claim, including result from study of a subset of the 21% of the 2008 defense programs that were deemed stable - on track with original estimates of cost and schedule. What kind of strong leadership made these programs stable? Things like experience, continuity, and open and honest communication, knowledge-based planning, disciplined execution of plans, and establishment of realistic cost and schedule estimates that account for risk are all cited.  Here’s ...
Original Post Date: Friday, July 9, 2010  While sitting in the operatory chair yesterday, my dentist said something that made me stop. He was complaining about an increasing rate of incompetence and apathy he observes in those delivering services to him. And while I do agree with him in principal, he and I are of the age where some folks label us as grumpy old men. So, it may not be as bad as we think. Regardless, the statement he said he made to the an unfortunate poor-quality service provider was, “If you don’t have the time to do it ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 About 75 aerospace & defense (A&D) sector leaders met at an executive summit in Annapolis, MD several weeks ago. Among the topics was a warning about growth in the amount of overruns in the A&D sector. Deloitte produced an analysis of the overrun of major defense acquisition programs relative to their baseline price which showed an unappealing straight-line growth – 26% (growth over baseline) in 2008, projected to be 46% by 2018. A conclusion being tossed about was that the country cannot afford a future like this. Didn’t Norm Augustine come to a ...
Original Post Date: Monday, October 18, 2010 Some of us remember taking the Iowa tests during our early school days. The Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) are standardized tests provided as a service to schools by the College of Education of The University of Iowa. The tests, administered to students in grades K-8, became a national standard for measuring scholastic aptitude – I was educated in Pennsylvania. Now out of Iowa comes another test of sorts, something called an Integrity Index Score based upon a proprietary algorithm of an organization called Iowa Live. Iowa Live calls itself, “a ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010 From my perspective as a cost researcher, the calibration tool is one of the most powerful analysis capabilities built into the TruePlanning cost management software . One way I can use this tool is to go back to an old estimate for a project that is now completed, and analyze the correctness of the previously entered input values. With this analysis, I can find ways to improve our methods of soliciting input values from the user to ensure the best values are entered the next time. This way, the TruePlanning models keep getting “smarter” as new information ...
Original Post Date: Friday, June 4, 2010 One of the great features of the TruePlanning cost management software is the fact that it makes it easy to handle complications of inflation and estimating projects performed in different countries and currencies. The costs associated with doing work in different countries, and the relative value of different currencies is constantly changing. To address this, the cost research team at PRICE does an annual economic update performed by the cost research team, and this blog will introduce some of basic concepts and research that goes into maintaining this feature every year. The price of goods and ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, June 24, 2010 "And me boss. And me boss. And me boss!" Just like Bugs Bunny tricking the mob boss into an unfair share of the loot, who doesn’t want a piece of the action. In this case the “action” is the estimate you have just finished in TruePlanning and would like to share with your coworkers. No problem, just share your project. Project sharing is a feature that is available to users who are using the Client/Server version of TruePlanning and it allows users to access projects that have been created on the centralized database by other users. If ...
Original Post Date: Monday, April 26, 2010  With so many acquisition programs over budget and behind schedule, the term “Cost Realism” is suddenly very popular. In my experience as an estimator on many major acquisition programs, two things have remained certain over years (besides death and taxes). First, the probability of the program ever achieving the original cost estimate is exactly zero and second, the more information that is known about a program, the more it will exceed its original cost estimate.    With that said, the move to Cost Realism is so important because it recognizes these two fundamental ...
Original Post Date: Friday, May 21, 2010 Last month I blogged about the importance of cost realism, its roots and how as estimators we must always reflect the truth, no matter how unpopular. This month I want to share with you a recent experience on a Source Selection. As part of the Source Selection team, my role was to conduct a Cost Realism estimate on each of the performers submitting bids. I want to share with you a few insights from that experience. One of the first rules I always follow is to never ask engineers to provide data that ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, June 30, 2010  I recently had the opportunity to work directly for one of our clients on a high visibility, must-win proposal. The contractor was just about ready to commit to the bid number, but wanted to know the likely bids of the other two performers. We were asked to do a “Ghosting the Competition” study where we ethically collect open source data on two competing designs and combined with engineering technical data to develop a best cost estimate of the competitor’s bid positions.   Unfortunately, not much intelligence was known about the competing configurations, but the ...