• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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I just recently attended the 28th Annual IEEE Software Technology Conference (STC) sponsored by IEEE and hosted and the National Institute of Standards (NIST).    The conference provided attendees with incredible quality content – 8 wonderful keynote sessions and 51 great presentations (OK – I didn’t attend all of them obviously but the ones I did were insightful, useful and informative.  STC was founded in 1989  by the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition (Communications, Computers, and Support Systems), Mr. Lloyd Mosemann, through the Software Technology Support Center (STSC) at Hill Air Force Base.  The purpose of the ...
Here’s a great article written by Charles Symon’s discussing current challenges in software project estimation and how different organizational cultures deal with them differently.  http://nesma.org/2015/10/chaotic-and-controlled-software-project-estimating/.  According to the author, in a study of 105 software projects completed between 1997 and 2007 in the UK public sector – 30% were terminated, 57% experienced cost overruns averaging 30.5% and 33% suffered major delays. (“Cost over-runs, delays and terminations: 105 outsourced public escort ICT projects – D. Whitfield).  And this is only one study; any of us who live in the software world have heard more than our share of tales of ...
We’ve kicked off a study of the cost impacts of various development standards, and this post discusses a customer request on the cost impacts of IEEE/EIA 12207. IEEE 12207 establishes a common framework for software life cycle processes, with well-defined terminology that can be referenced by the software industry [1].  Adherence to this standard helps to eliminate misunderstandings between contractors and procurers and significantly improves chances of mission success, a major part of which is preventing cost and schedule overruns [2, 3]. IEEE 12207 contains a set of management, engineering, and data requirements for all parties involved (acquirers, suppliers, developers, operators, ...
Being that software measurement is a topic of great interest, I will occasionally look to Google for inspiration and trends.  Often these searches will return several of my own papers and it’s fun to revisit them and think about how much as things change, they remain the same. Recently, I stumbled across a paper I had written many years ago – it was in fact the second or third article that I had published in a magazine (see the article here).  I read through it briefly and was really struck by how relevant it still is today.  The paper ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, April 14, 2010 The first time I remember hearing the term, “data driven estimating,” was at an ISPA/SCEA conference in Phoenix about 6 years ago. I thought I had a pretty good concept of what that meant. Then, I started hearing it more frequently about 6 to 9 months ago, and I wasn’t as sure of my understanding. So, I went to the Internet and Googled, “Data Driven Estimating.”  The first 3 pages yield links to statistical, engineering, and technical estimating founded on data; e.g. packet routing, data delivery rate, radar and rain gage data, ...
Original Post Date: Tuesday, June 15, 2010 The GAO just published a report saying that strong leadership is key to planning and executing stable weapons programs. And, evidence is presented to back the claim, including result from study of a subset of the 21% of the 2008 defense programs that were deemed stable - on track with original estimates of cost and schedule. What kind of strong leadership made these programs stable? Things like experience, continuity, and open and honest communication, knowledge-based planning, disciplined execution of plans, and establishment of realistic cost and schedule estimates that account for risk are all cited.  Here’s ...
Original Post Date: Friday, July 9, 2010  While sitting in the operatory chair yesterday, my dentist said something that made me stop. He was complaining about an increasing rate of incompetence and apathy he observes in those delivering services to him. And while I do agree with him in principal, he and I are of the age where some folks label us as grumpy old men. So, it may not be as bad as we think. Regardless, the statement he said he made to the an unfortunate poor-quality service provider was, “If you don’t have the time to do it ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, September 29, 2010 About 75 aerospace & defense (A&D) sector leaders met at an executive summit in Annapolis, MD several weeks ago. Among the topics was a warning about growth in the amount of overruns in the A&D sector. Deloitte produced an analysis of the overrun of major defense acquisition programs relative to their baseline price which showed an unappealing straight-line growth – 26% (growth over baseline) in 2008, projected to be 46% by 2018. A conclusion being tossed about was that the country cannot afford a future like this. Didn’t Norm Augustine come to a ...
Original Post Date: Monday, October 18, 2010 Some of us remember taking the Iowa tests during our early school days. The Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) are standardized tests provided as a service to schools by the College of Education of The University of Iowa. The tests, administered to students in grades K-8, became a national standard for measuring scholastic aptitude – I was educated in Pennsylvania. Now out of Iowa comes another test of sorts, something called an Integrity Index Score based upon a proprietary algorithm of an organization called Iowa Live. Iowa Live calls itself, “a ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, November 3, 2010 The midterm elections are finally over. The themes of reduced spending and lower taxes showed up in force at the ballot box. But what does that mean for the defense industry? The U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, caused quite a stir when he announced his proposals for reigning in defense spending. There are the expected assortment of eliminations (U.S. Joint Forces Command and Business transformation Agency to name two), reductions (in service support contracts, number of senior civilian executive and general/admiral military officers, and funding for intelligence community advisory contracts), freezes (of ...