• Predictive Analytics for Improved Cost Management  



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Original Post Date: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 One of the biggest challenges estimators face is defending their estimates.  You may trust in your estimate, but how do you get others on board who might be unfamiliar with parametric estimating?  Showing comparisons of your project to similar completed projects is one of the best methods of defending your choice of inputs and your final results.  It’s also a method that nearly everyone understands.  Unfortunately, relevant, high quality data to compare with isn’t always available. There are 2 important trends related to this problem.  First, high quality data is being protected more so than ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, November 29, 2012 With Customize View, TruePlanning™ offers great flexibility in editing favorites as row by column grids.  Typical examples are Object by Activity, Object by Resource and Activity by Resource.  But what if you wanted to view any of these grids also by year?  In other words, how can we add a third dimension?  Last October, in my “Work Breakdown Structures are Workable!” blog, we discussed the use of Excel’s Data-Sort and Data-Group options to build up a WBS, for a MIL-STD 881 style view of Activity by Object as a linear list.  Results were singular ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, November 1, 2012  Changing organization culture is often cited as necessary for surviving the grim financial realities we face today. Everywhere you look, no one seems to have enough money to buy what they need, but somehow, the need must be fulfilled. If we can just change organization culture, a smart new idea will emerge to save the day; maybe so. How, then, do we change the culture? Practically every B-school and business periodical has written on the subject. One thing they all agree is that achieving organization change is one of, if not the ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 PRICE was recently tasked by a client to provide an Analysis of Alternatives (AOA). As we assembled a team to complete this, I was tasked with modeling all the alternatives inside TruePlanning.  After the initial data call, we realized that this project would be cumbersome due to the large amount of data. While developing the project plan, I had to think of a crafty way to get data in and out of TruePlanning efficiently. It was interesting to note how much capability I could utilize from the TruePlanning Companion Applications to effectively support ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 A frequent question from students and consulting clients is how to estimate software size when either: detailed functional requirements descriptions are not yet documented or, even if the latter do exist, the resources necessary (in cost and time) for detailed function point (“FP”) counting are prohibitive. If appropriate analogies or detailed use cases are not available, fast function point counting can be a non-starter, without nominal understanding of pre-design software transactions and data functions.  Hence, the challenge is to find an estimating basis for functional measure (i.e., ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, October 11, 2012  Over the past year and half of customer mentoring, I have been responding to more and more requests regarding how to represent the DoD Acquisition Phases in the development of TruePlanning® cost estimates. With the renewed interest in Total Ownership Costs, there appears to be a desire to have greater visibility into costs by appropriation over a well-defined / understood schedule. This need to estimate and report out on cost by appropriation and schedule has been a driver behind the need to represent the acquisition phases more explicitly within TruePlanning® than is ...
Original Post Date: Wednesday, October 10, 2012 Recently I wrote a blog on the “Role of Value Engineering in Affordability Analysis.” In that blog, I wrote about the importance of understanding the cost behavior of each candidate's (alternative) architecture as part of the Value Engineering method in order to achieve affordability. I defined “cost behavior” as the relationship of how cost varies as design factors such as new materials, cutting edge technology, new manufacturing processes, and extensive support requirements associated with a particular function causes a cost to change. What are the drivers and how does cost change as those ...
Original Post Date: Monday, October 8, 2012 The answer:  ~ 10.226.  At least that’s the value on our complexity scale we found via calibration after modeling it in TruePlanning(R).   Check out this Teardown of the new iPhone 5 , which breaks it down into a bill of materials, each with an estimated cost.  A colleague had the cool idea to model the iPhone 5 with TruePlanning, using information we could find on the internet.  This was a really thought-provoking exercise to help me as I’m updating our electronics complexity guidance, because the electronics in the iPhone 5 are state-of-the-art. Around ...
Original Post Date: Friday, October 5, 2012 I am currently involved in co-authoring a white paper on the “Role of Value Engineering in Affordability Analysis.” For the purposes of this discussion I define affordability as that characteristic of a product or service that responds to the buyer’s price, performance, and availability needs simultaneously. The writing of this white paper has been an interesting exercise for me because my fellow co-authors come from different backgrounds and thus have very different points of view. The majority of my colleagues are “card carrying” Systems Engineers. As such, they have a perspective that ...
Original Post Date: Thursday, September 27, 201 I am frequently questioned by clients and prospects about the applicability of PRICE’s parametric software estimation model to agile software development projects.  There are several ways one could respond to this.  My first thought is that if a shop is truly agile, they don’t need an estimation tool.  They know their development team velocity because agile teams are committed to measurement.  They also either know when they need to make a delivery – in which case whatever amount of software they’ve build by that point will be released.  Alternatively they may know ...