Original Post Date: Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Recently a cost research project on missiles was completed. The research resulted in performance based equations for air-to-ground and surface-to-air missiles were developed. The performance based equations can be used for early concept estimation  on missile development and production costs. The question though is “What is the process for developing this type of estimating relationship?” This will be the first of a series of BLOGs on this topic. 

The first task is to define what is a “Performance Based Equation?” Bruce Fad covered this definition in a previous “Data Driven BLOG” so please review his post for the details. The second step is data collection of not only cost and technical data, but also collection of data for potential independent variables. I would recommend collecting data for several independent variables. This avoids starting over with the data collection effort, when the initial independent variable does not correlate with the dependent variable. In the case of the missile data, various potential independent variables were identified: Range, speed, payload, guidance system, and propulsion system. The independent variable data was not used for the next step. Rather the next step was to set up a calibration TruePlanning input file. The calibration results were for manufacturing complexity and were ported over to MS Excel for completing the analysis. This will be discussed in a follow-up post.

Jim Otte
Solutions Architect, PRICE Systems