by Zach Jasnoff
| September 24, 2014
In the February 2011 issue of National Defense, I was struck by the article “Uncertain Path Ahead for Military Truck Fleet”. This article centered on the best strategies for modernization of the aging fleet of Humvees. The recapitalization of 150,000 Army and 25,000 Marine Corps Humvees is creating a “fix or buy new” dilemna for decision makers. According to the article, GAO analyst Michael J. Sullivan should include a “cost-benefit analysis that would minimize the collective acquisition and support costs of the various truck programs, and reduce the risk of overlap or duplication.
The TruePlanning model is an excellent framework to conduct the vigorous cost-benefit analysis called for by GAO. Having recently completed in-depth AoA’s on two high profile programs, outstanding results were obtained and used by decision makers at the highest levels.
Conducting an AoA using the TruePlanning framework and models would introduce the type of rigorous analytics needed to support the DoD’s vehicle strategy while satisfying the GAO call for cost-benefit analysis. Within the model, each alternative could be structured for both its acquisition and lifecycle profile. This would contain Humvee recapitalization profiles for armored, unarmored and even vehicles that have surpassed their economic useful life. In addition, other alternatives such as JLTV, MRAP, next generation Marine Corps personnel carriers and new production Humvees could be modeled as well. Cost-benefits can also be modeled via TruePlanning’s specialized benefit objects.
In sum, complete force-structuring analysis can be accomplished within the TruePlanning framework. Coupled with optimization tools such as ModelCenter, decision-makers have an analytical way of removing uncertainty for modernizing an aging truck fleet balanced with economic realities. If you are interested in how force-structuring can be accomplished within TruePlanning, I would be happy to share with you a paper a presented at DoDCAS last year on the subject. Just a post a comment with your request.
 Uncertain Path Ahead for Military Truck Fleet, Sandra I. Erwin, National Defense, February 2011