by Ed Merriman
| April 17, 2017
It is common for consumers of TruePlanning Cost Analysis to request some type of uncertainty analysis and this is frequently a request for an 80% confidence level report. TruePlanning can produce an uncertainty report and provide confidence levels, but some organizations have a prescribed method for generating uncertainty analysis based on the use of Monte Carlo. Many of these organizations use @Risk to perform Monte Carlo analysis. TruePlanning has an integration with TruePlanning so TruePlanning users can satisfy the development of an 80% confidence level base on inputs in TruePlanning projects.
Recently a customer contacted PRICE and indicated that they needed to track more detailed results from TruePlanning than was currently available in the TruePlanning/@Risk integration. The customer had a specific result set they were generating in TruePlanning and they wanted to know if they could get that result set pushed into Excel and made part of the output consumed by and reported on by @Risk. The customer had a labor-intensive way of reproducing the result data format based on the results obtained from @Risk, but if the TruePlanning/@Risk integration could use the TruePlanning result set it would save the customer a significant amount of time and effort.
PRICE looked into the request and was able update the TruePlanning/@Risk integration solution to include specific TruePlanning results in an @Risk Monte Carlo analysis. The initial update to the solution looks for a specifically named results Favorite and if that favorite is found, the data from that favorite is set up so the results are fed into the Monte Carlo run as @Risk Results.
In the screenshot below a TruePlanning project was opened. In addition to the standard Estimate Costs or Labor Requirements that were set up to be @Risk results, the values produced by a TruePlanning result Favorite are also included as @Risk outputs. This means that when a Monte Carlo is run against this project, @Risk will perform analysis on all of the data in the selected TruePlanning result set.
In particular, there are two aspects of the TruePlanning results depicted above that were important to the customer: the fiscal years, and the breakout of Activities by phase. In TruePlanning it is easy to get the multidimensional result data, but manually breaking out this data from high level labor requirements was extremely time consuming for the customer. Also the process relied on using derived percentages to break out hours by fiscal year. Having TruePlanning perform the heavy lifting of data production is significantly easier and saves the customer a significant amount of time.
This is just the first step in allowing users to use TruePlanning results in Monte Carlo analysis. Currently the name of the TruePlanning favorite is fixed, but in future releases the targeted favorite will be specified.
Please feel free to contact PRICE if you have any questions about this feature, TruePlanning, the TruePlanning/@Risk integration, or any other PRICE products and services. If you would like a copy of this solution, please contact PRICE.